How many years has it been since Auburn just plain ol’, you know, beat Alabama?
The Tigers, of course, have won just two of the previous nine Iron Bowl matchups, and both were monumental in nature. There was the Cam Newton-led comeback from a 24-0 deficit to win 28-27 in Tuscaloosa in 2010, followed three years later by the Kick Six at Jordan-Hare. [It’s no coincidence that Auburn wound up playing for the national title in each of those seasons; it takes a championship-caliber team to beat Bama.]
The last time Auburn beat Alabama in a manner that didn’t require a miraculous comeback or perhaps the single most stunning play in the rivalry’s history was 2007, when the Tigers earned a ho-hum (relatively speaking) 17-10 win over Nick Saban’s first Tide team. A win by Auburn this Saturday would be far from ho-hum [the stakes are exponentially higher than they were in 2007], but the consensus seems to be that the Tigers—should they play at or very close to peak performance—are capable of simply lining up and beating Alabama.
That belief stems primarily from the events of November 11, when Auburn dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in an impressive 40-17 thrashing of then-No. 1 Georgia and injury-riddled Alabama looked as vulnerable defensively as it has in a long time in a 31-24 win over Mississippi State.
So what will happen this Saturday? Here are three keys that could determine the outcome:
- Jalen Hurts. The game is bound to be close, and Hurts has a habit of coming through with clutch plays (both running and throwing) in the fourth quarter. He’s unflappable, he takes care of the ball, and his ability to make game-changing plays with his legs gives the Tide a dimension that Georgia’s offense simply didn’t have.
- Auburn’s defensive front. It’s perhaps the best unit on the field, on either side of the ball. And D-line also happens to be the facet of the game most likely to be enhanced by a raucous home crowd. If Derrick Brown, Marlon Davidson, Jeff Holland and company have their way up front, Auburn has a great chance to win.
- Kerryon Johnson. Yes, Jarrett Stidham will have to play well. Sure, Auburn’s receivers can’t afford to disappear the way they did in losses to Clemson and LSU. But Johnson is the identity and the engine of this offense. Will his patient, probing style of running be effective against an Alabama front that has struggled some of late to create penetration? Can he continue to gain those yards after contact? If so, that’s another checkmark in Auburn’s favor.
For the first time since 2013, the Iron Bowl truly feels like a toss-up. It has a chance to be an outstanding game. A Kick Six won’t be necessary this time. A clutch kick from Daniel Carlson will suffice.
The Pick: Auburn 23 Alabama 21
